Narvik Strategy — The Record

Narvik Strategy — The Record https://www.narvikstrategy.com/the-record Numbered and dated notes on the political forces bearing on capital, supply lines and licence to operate. Each states what would prove it wrong. en-GB NARVIK LTD Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0000 No. 006 — The chokepoint premium https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/006 https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/006 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0000 Client note Pricing the straits, canals and cables the global economy quietly depends on. — The judgment: Price each dependence at the cost of its best alternative on the day of closure. Hedge what can be hedged; make what cannot be hedged smaller. No. 005 — Three futures for European gas https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/005 https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/005 Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0000 Scenario set A scenario set for procurement committees navigating a fractured market. — The judgment: Any position that survives all three futures is robust. Any position that requires one of them to be true is a wager, and should be sized as one. No. 004 — The Arctic becomes a market https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/004 https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/004 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0000 Essay Retreating ice is redrawing Europe’s northern logistics, and its security perimeter with it. — The judgment: Treat the northern route as a market that is opening rather than a curiosity that is melting. Everything expensive about it is currently cheap to reserve. No. 003 — What boards misread about sanctions https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/003 https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/003 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0000 Client note Second-order exposure is where the losses sit, and it is rarely on the register. — The judgment: Compliance answers whether you may trade. It does not answer whether your counterparty's counterparty can still pay you, insure you, or clear your payment. That second question is the exposure, and it sits outside the register. No. 002 — Country of design https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/002 https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/002 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0000 Briefing Why design provenance, not the fabrication address, now sets semiconductor exposure. — The judgment: Establish where every critical component is designed, not only where it is made. Control now follows the design technology, and the design technology travels with the part. No. 001 — The cable map nobody owns https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/001 https://www.narvikstrategy.com/notes/001 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0000 Essay Subsea repair capacity is a market of a few dozen vessels, and everyone is short of it. — The judgment: Your bandwidth is not a contract with a carrier. It is a claim on a repair vessel that a dozen other people also have a claim on.